Economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Western Java smallholder broiler farms.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is considered endemic in most parts of Indonesia and constitutes an important risk for broiler production, especially in Western Java which has the highest poultry population in the country. Most broiler farms in Western Java are smallholder farms that operate under different business types: independent (i.e., revenues based on market price and live bird weight), price-contract (i.e., revenues based on a contract selling price and live bird weight) or makloon (i.e., revenues based on a management fee per sold bird). Many studies focus on the epidemiological impacts of HPAI at the regional level, and insights into the economic impact at the farm level are scarce, especially in the Indonesian context. Meanwhile, a single HPAI outbreak could disrupt smallholder broiler farmers' primary source of income. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the economic impact of HPAI outbreaks under different response scenarios (i.e., no action, stamping out, and early selling) on typical Western Java smallholder broiler farms. Furthermore, the effect of different farm business types and the existence of a sick-bird market on the economic effects of HPAI outbreaks were evaluated. We developed a dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm during one production round. Our results show that the economic consequences of HPAI outbreaks for independent and price-contract farms are considerable, ranging from, on average, 1.2-62.7 million Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) losses (€76.9 to €3919), depending on the moment of and response to infection, compared to an expected gross margin of 5.3 million IDR (€331) under normal circumstances. The economic loss for makloon farms was substantially lower than for other business types, reducing their incentive to implement biosecurity. The economic impacts were sensitive to changes in a diverse set of parameters, including disease transmission rate, detection threshold, and stamping-out compensation. The losses in a scenario with stamping out were higher than in other scenarios, especially when stamping out happened near the end of the production round. Moreover, reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs. Financial incentives for farmers to control HPAI differ largely between farm business types.

The relation between technical farm performance and antimicrobial use of broiler farms.

The aim of the present study was to explore the relation between both farm performance and antimicrobial use (AMU) of broiler farms. Farm performance was expressed as technical efficiency, obtained by using a bootstrap data envelopment analysis. AMU was expressed as treatment incidence. Cluster analysis is used to obtain groups of farms with similar characteristics regarding technical farm performance and AMU. Results indicate that the farms within the different clusters combine different technical farm performance and different levels of AMU. Between the clusters, significant differences were found in technical farm performance, AMU, the resource intensity of the number of animals at set-up, the number of antimicrobial treatments, the number of antimicrobial treatments related to either gut health or combined problems, and the number of antimicrobial treatments with either yellow or orange active substances. Farmers who combine high levels of AMU with high technical farm performance are likely to overestimate the real economic value of AMU. Proper coordination between the farmer and the veterinarian can be crucial in that case for reducing AMU. Farms with low performance are likely to have poor farm conditions. Improving those farm conditions can help reducing the need for AMU on this kind of farms. The farm-specific conditions have to be considered in future policies aimed at reducing AMU in livestock production.

Reducing risks of human exposure to antimicrobial resistance originating from livestock supply chains.

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the biggest health threats for both humans and animals. This justifies the need for a conceptual framework that provides an integrated assessment of the measures and strategies that can be applied within livestock supply chains to reduce the risks of human exposure to resistant pathogens. The aim of this study is therefore to provide a comprehensive supply- chain-based conceptualisation that describes the main measures and strategies to reduce the risks of human exposure to resistant pathogens. The conceptual framework presented in this study makes a distinction between on-farm and beyond-farm decision-making. The on-farm decision-making context focuses on the strategies that can reduce antimicrobial use. The beyond-farm decision-making context focuses on the prevalence of (pathogenic) microorganisms. The focus of this framework is on Western European food production systems. A panel of Dutch experts on antimicrobial issues assessed various aspects of the framework, including correctness, completeness and consistency. They concluded that the conceptual framework provides a sound theoretical basis for economic decision support for policy-makers to reduce the risks of human exposure to resistant pathogens originating from livestock supply chains.

La résistance aux agents antimicrobiens constitue l'une des plus graves menaces pesant actuellement sur la santé tant humaine qu'animale. Ce constat justifie de concevoir un cadre conceptuel permettant de procéder à l'évaluation intégrée des mesures et des stratégies applicables tout au long de la chaîne d'approvisionnement de la filière élevage afin de réduire les risques d'exposition humaine à des agents pathogènes résistants. L'étude présentée par les auteurs a donc pour but de fournir une conceptualisation exhaustive fondée sur la chaîne d'approvisionnement et décrivant les principales mesures et stratégies de réduction des risques d'exposition humaine aux agents pathogènes résistants. Ce cadre conceptuel différencie deux contextes distincts de la prise de décision, d'une part les exploitations elles-mêmes et d'autre part les contextes extérieurs aux élevages. Les décisions prises dans les exploitations sont centrées sur les stratégies visant à réduire la quantité d'agents antimicrobiens utilisés. Les décisions relevant des contextes extérieurs aux élevages sont axées sur la prévalence des micro-organismes (pathogènes). Le cadre couvre les systèmes de production agroalimentaires d'Europe occidentale. Un groupe néerlandais d'experts de la lutte contre l'antibiorésistance a évalué ce cadre sous divers aspects, dont les paramètres de justesse, de complétude et de cohérence. Il en ressort que ce cadre conceptuel apporte aux responsables de l'élaboration des politiques une base théorique solide en soutien des décisions économiques visant à réduire les risques d'exposition humaine aux agents pathogènes résistants ayant pour source les chaînes d'approvisionnement du secteur de l'élevage.

La resistencia a los antimicrobianos es una de las mayores amenazas que pesan sobre la salud de humanos y animales, hecho que por sí solo justifica la necesidad de un marco teórico en el que inscribir una evaluación integrada de las medidas y estrategias que se pueden aplicar dentro de las cadenas de abastecimiento de ganado para reducir el riesgo de exposición humana a agentes patógenos resistentes. En este sentido, los autores describen un estudio encaminado a encuadrar la cadena de abastecimiento en coordenadas teóricas desde las cuales describir las principales medidas y estrategias para reducir el mencionado riesgo de exposición humana. El marco teórico presentado en este estudio distingue entre los ámbitos de decisión situados «en la explotación¼ y los que residen «más allá de la explotación¼. El ámbito decisorio de la explotación incide esencialmente en los dispositivos que puedan llevar a reducir el uso de antimicrobianos, mientras que las decisiones que trascienden el ámbito de la explotación se centran en la prevalencia de los microorganismos (agentes patógenos). El marco aquí presentado tiene por principal referencia los sistemas de producción alimentaria de Europa occidental. Tras evaluar varios de sus aspectos, en particular su corrección, su exhaustividad y su coherencia, un grupo sobre antimicrobianos formado por expertos neerlandeses llegó a la conclusión de que este marco conceptual proporciona sólidas bases teóricas en las que fundamentar, desde el punto de vista económico, las decisiones de las instancias de planificación para reducir el riesgo de exposición humana a agentes patógenos resistentes procedentes de las cadenas de abastecimiento de ganado.

The technical and economic impact of veterinary interventions aimed at reducing antimicrobial use on broiler farms.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat for both human and animal health. One of the main drivers of antimicrobial resistance is inappropriate antimicrobial use in livestock production. The aim of this study was to examine the technical and economic impact of tailor-made interventions, aimed at reducing antimicrobial use in broiler production. Historical (i.e., before intervention) and observational (i.e., after intervention) data were collected at 20 broiler farms. Results indicate that average daily gain and mortality generally increased after intervention, whereas feed conversion and antimicrobial use decreased. Economic performance after interventions was generally higher than before the interventions. Sensitivity analyses on price changes confirm the robustness of the findings.

Exploring the economic potential of reducing broiler lameness.

1. The present study was designed first to explore the potential economic benefits of adopting management practices to reduce lameness in broiler farms, and second to explore farmers' possible perceptions of this potential in the Swedish context. The likely financial effects were addressed using a normative economic model, whereas a questionnaire-based survey was used to obtain in-depth knowledge about the perceptions of a group of broiler farmers in Sweden. 2. The three alternative practices (out of 6 tested) which realised the greatest improvements in gross margin and net return to management compared to the conventional practice were feeding whole wheat, sequential feeding and meal feeding. 3. The model showed that the negative effect of feeding whole wheat on feed conversion rate was outweighed by the effect of a low feed price and the associated decrease in feed costs. The price of wheat played a major role in the improvement of economic performance, whereas the reduction of lameness itself made a relatively minor contribution. 4. Apparently, the surveyed farmers do not recognise the potential of the positive effects of changing feed or feeding practices on both broiler welfare and farm economics although their implementation can be of great importance in the broiler sector where profit margins are very tight.​.

Economic Analysis of Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in the Netherlands.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious pig disease that causes economic losses and impaired animal welfare. Improving the surveillance system for CSF can help to ensure early detection of the virus, thereby providing a better initial situation for controlling the disease. Economic analysis is required to compare the benefits of improved surveillance with the costs of implementing a more intensive system. This study presents a comprehensive economic analysis of CSF surveillance in the Netherlands, taking into account the specialized structure of Dutch pig production, differences in virulence of CSF strains and a complete list of possible surveillance activities. The starting point of the analysis is the current Dutch surveillance system (i.e. the default surveillance-setup scenario), including the surveillance activities 'daily clinical observation by the farmer', 'veterinarian inspection after a call', 'routine veterinarian inspection', 'pathology in AHS', 'PCR on tonsil in AHS', 'PCR on grouped animals in CVI' and 'confirmatory PCR by NVWA'. Alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were proposed by adding 'routine serology in slaughterhouses', 'routine serology on sow farms' and 'PCR on rendered animals'. The costs and benefits for applying the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were evaluated by comparing the annual mitigated economic losses because of intensified CSF surveillance with the annual additional surveillance costs. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios with 'PCR on rendered animals' are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the scenarios with 'routine serology in slaughterhouses' or 'routine serology on sow farms' are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the moderately virulent CSF strain indicate that the current surveillance system in the Netherlands is adequate. From an economic perspective, there is little to be gained from intensifying surveillance.

A Framework for Categorization of the Economic Impacts of Outbreaks of Highly Contagious Livestock Diseases.

A framework for categorization of economic impacts of outbreaks of highly contagious livestock diseases (HCLD) is presented. This framework interprets veterinary measures to control HCLD outbreaks with reference to economic definitions of costs and benefits, and the implications for value losses both for different stakeholders affected and society as a whole. Four cost categories are identified, that is virus control-related direct costs (DC), spread prevention and zoning-related direct consequential costs (DCC), market and price disruption-related costs during (indirect consequential costs, ICC) and after the outbreak (aftermath costs, AC). The framework is used to review existing literature on cost estimation for different stakeholders. This review shows considerable differences between studies, making comparison of results difficult and susceptible to misunderstanding. It is concluded that the framework provides a logical basis for all future analyses of the economic impacts of HCLD.

Simulation of Cross-border Impacts Resulting from Classical Swine Fever Epidemics within the Netherlands and Germany.

The cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and the two German states of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) and Lower Saxony (LS) is a large and highly integrated livestock production area. This region increasingly develops towards a single epidemiological area in which disease introduction is a shared veterinary and, consequently, economic risk. The objectives of this study were to examine classical swine fever (CSF) control strategies' veterinary and direct economic impacts for NL, NRW and LS given the current production structure and to analyse CSF's cross-border causes and impacts within the NL-NRW-LS region. The course of the epidemic was simulated by the use of InterSpread Plus, whereas economic analysis was restricted to calculating disease control costs and costs directly resulting from the control measures applied. Three veterinary control strategies were considered: a strategy based on the minimum EU requirements, a vaccination and a depopulation strategy based on NL and GER's contingency plans. Regardless of the veterinary control strategy, simulated outbreak sizes and durations for 2010 were much smaller than those simulated previously, using data from over 10 years ago. For example, worst-case outbreaks (50th percentile) in NL resulted in 30-40 infected farms and lasted for two to four and a half months; associated direct costs and direct consequential costs ranged from €24.7 to 28.6 million and €11.7 to 26.7 million, respectively. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies were efficient in controlling outbreaks, especially large outbreaks, whereas the EU minimum strategy was especially deficient in controlling worst-case outbreaks. Both vaccination and depopulation strategies resulted in low direct costs and direct consequential costs. The probability of cross-border disease spread was relatively low, and cross-border spread resulted in small, short outbreaks in neighbouring countries. Few opportunities for further cross-border harmonization and collaboration were identified, including the implementation of cross-border regions (free and diseased regions regardless of the border) in case of outbreaks within close proximity of the border, and more and quicker sharing of information across the border. It was expected, however, that collaboration to mitigate the market effects of an epidemic will create more opportunities to lower the impact of CSF outbreaks in a cross-border context.

A conceptual framework for economic optimization of an animal health surveillance portfolio.

Decision making on hazard surveillance in livestock product chains is a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and multi-criteria process that includes a variety of decision alternatives. The multi-hazard aspect means that the allocation of the scarce resource for surveillance should be optimized from the point of view of a surveillance portfolio (SP) rather than a single hazard. In this paper, we present a novel conceptual approach for economic optimization of a SP to address the resource allocation problem for a surveillance organization from a theoretical perspective. This approach uses multi-criteria techniques to evaluate the performances of different settings of a SP, taking cost-benefit aspects of surveillance and stakeholders' preferences into account. The credibility of the approach has also been checked for conceptual validity, data needs and operational validity; the application potentials of the approach are also discussed.

Effects of different broiler production systems on health care costs in the Netherlands.

This study analyzed the effects of different broiler production systems on health care costs in the Netherlands. In addition to the conventional production system, the analysis also included 5 alternative animal welfare systems representative of the Netherlands. The study was limited to the most prevalent and economically relevant endemic diseases in the broiler farms. Health care costs consisted of losses and expenditures. The study investigated whether higher animal welfare standards increased health care costs, in both absolute and relative terms, and also examined which cost components (losses or expenditures) were affected and, if so, to what extent. The results show that health care costs represent only a small proportion of total production costs in each production system. Losses account for the major part of health care costs, which makes it difficult to detect the actual effect of diseases on total health care costs. We conclude that, although differences in health care costs exist across production systems, health care costs only make a minor contribution to the total production costs relative to other costs, such as feed costs and purchase of 1-d-old chicks.

A conceptual framework for economic optimization of single hazard surveillance in livestock production chains.

Economic analysis of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is essential for surveillance organizations (such as food safety authorities) when making scientifically based decisions on optimization of resource allocation. To enable this, quantitative decision support tools are required at two levels of analysis: (1) single-hazard surveillance system and (2) surveillance portfolio. This paper addresses the first level by presenting a conceptual approach for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems. The concept includes objective and subjective aspects of single-hazard surveillance system analysis: (1) a simulation part to derive an efficient set of surveillance setups based on the technical surveillance performance parameters (TSPPs) and the corresponding surveillance costs, i.e., objective analysis, and (2) a multi-criteria decision making model to evaluate the impacts of the hazard surveillance, i.e., subjective analysis. The conceptual approach was checked for (1) conceptual validity and (2) data validity. Issues regarding the practical use of the approach, particularly the data requirement, were discussed. We concluded that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the practicability of the approach depends on data availability.

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands II: comparison of control strategies.

A combined epidemiological-economic modelling approach was used to analyse strategies for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) control for the Netherlands. The modelling framework used was InterSpread Plus (ISP), a spatially based, stochastic and dynamic simulation model. A total of eight control strategies were analysed, including pre-emptive depopulation and vaccination strategies. The analysis was carried out for three different regions in the Netherlands: high-, medium- and low-density areas (HDA, MDA and LDA, respectively). The analysis included the veterinary impact (e.g. number of infected premises and duration), but was particularly focused on the impact on direct costs (DC) and direct consequential costs. The efficient set of control strategies for HDA and MDA included strategies based on either pre-emptive depopulation only or combined vaccination and pre-emptive depopulation: D2 (pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 2 km), RV3 + D1 (ring vaccination within a radius of 3 km and additional pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km) and PV + D1 (preventive vaccination in non-affected HDAs and pre-emptive depopulation within a radius of 1 km in the affected HDA). Although control solely based on depopulation in most cases showed to be effective for LDA, pre-emptive depopulation showed to have an additional advantage in these areas, that is, prevention of 'virus jumps' to other areas. The pros and cons of the efficient control strategies were discussed, for example, public perception and risk of export restrictions. It was concluded that for the Netherlands control of HPAI preferably should be carried out using strategies including pre-emptive depopulation with or without vaccination. Particularly, the short- and long-term implications on export, that is, indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs of these strategies, should be analysed further.

Cross-border collaboration in the field of highly contagious livestock diseases: a general framework for policy support.

This paper analyses the potential gains and the main challenges for increased cross-border collaboration in the control of highly contagious livestock diseases in regions with cross-border reliance on production and consumption of livestock commodities. The aim of this intensification of cross-border collaboration is to retain the economic advantages of cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities while maintaining a low risk of highly contagious livestock diseases. From these two foci, possibilities for future policy making with respect to highly contagious livestock diseases are discussed: peacetime cross-border cooperation to improve the cost-effectiveness of routine veterinary measures and crisis time cross-border harmonization of current disease control strategies. A general disease management framework was used to describe the way in which these two fields are related to and affect the epidemiological system and, consequently, how they impact the stakeholders. In addition to this framework, the importance of a good understanding of influencing factors, that is, the production structure of livestock, was stressed because these factors are important determinants of the frequency and magnitude of highly contagious livestock diseases and their economic impact. The use of the suggested integrated approach was illustrated for the extended cross-border region of the Netherlands and Germany, that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. For this region, current difficulties in cross-border trade in livestock and livestock commodities and possibilities for future cross-border collaboration were examined. The concepts and ideas presented in this paper should foster future development of cross-border collaboration in animal health control.

Economic analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands I: epidemiological modelling to support economic analysis.

Economic analysis of control strategies for contagious diseases is a necessity in the development of contingency plans. Economic impacts arising from epidemics such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) consist of direct costs (DC), direct consequential costs (DCC), indirect consequential costs (ICC) and aftermath costs (AC). Epidemiological models to support economic analysis need to provide adequate outputs for these critical economic parameters. Of particular importance for DCC, ICC and AC is the spatial production structure of a region. Spatial simulation models are therefore particularly suited for economic analysis; however, they often require a large number of parameters. The aims of this study are (i) to provide an economic rationale of epidemiological modelling in general, (ii) to provide a transparent description of the parameterization of a spatially based epidemiological model for the analysis of HPAI control in the Netherlands and (iii) to discuss the validity and usefulness of this model for subsequent economic analysis. In the model, HPAI virus transmission occurs via local spread and animal movements. Control mechanisms include surveillance and tracing, movement restrictions and depopulation. Sensitivity analysis of key parameters indicated that the epidemiological outputs with the largest influence on the economic impacts (i.e. epidemic duration and number of farms in the movement restriction zone) were more robust than less influential indicators (i.e. number of infected farms). Economically relevant outputs for strategy comparison were most sensitive to the relative role of the different transmission parameters. The default simulation and results of the sensitivity analysis were consistent with the general outcomes of known HPAI models. Comparison was, however, limited due to the absence of some economically relevant outputs. It was concluded that the model creates economically relevant, adequate and credible output for subsequent use in economic analysis. A detailed economic analysis is presented in a subsequent article.

Mid-term financial impact of animal welfare improvements in Dutch broiler production.

This study used a stochastic bioeconomic simulation model to simulate the business and financial risk of different broiler production systems over a 5-yr period. Simulation analysis was conducted using the @Risk add-in in MS Excel. To compare the impact of different production systems on economic feasibility, 2 cases were considered. The first case focused on the economic feasibility of a completely new system, whereas the second examined economic feasibilities when a farm switches from a conventional to an animal welfare-improving production system. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the key drivers of economic feasibility and to reveal systematic differences across production systems. The study shows that economic feasibility of systems with improved animal welfare predominantly depends on the price that farmers receive. Moreover, the study demonstrates the importance of the level and variation of the price premium for improved welfare, particularly in the first 5 yr after conversion. The economic feasibility of the production system increases with the level of welfare improvements for a sufficiently high price level for broiler meat and low volatility in producer prices. If this is not the case, however, risk attitudes of farmers become important as well as the use of potential risk management instruments.

Minimization of the impact of Aujeszky's disease outbreaks in The Netherlands: a conceptual framework.

In the Netherlands, outbreaks of Aujeszky's Disease (AD) are controlled by vaccination and movement restriction zones (MRZ). Although this strategy avoids the socio-ethical concerns associated with pre-emptive slaughter, it can easily result in animal welfare problems and negative economic consequences. These arise because movement restrictions result in surpluses of live (vaccinated) piglets on farms. The aim is to provide insight into the development of these surpluses and its impact and to describe how measures that allow early transportation of pigs under certain conditions and to specific destinations (channelling) could reduce these problems. For the analysis, a deterministic simulation model was developed, which calculates surpluses of piglets at multiplier farms during AD outbreaks. This is performed on a weekly basis for two areas (with and without piglet surplus), three outbreak durations (minimum, moderate and long) and three strategies for movement restrictions (strict, transports within the MRZ allowed and transports outside the MRZ allowed). The results show that in case of complete movement restrictions, surpluses of piglets varying in age and vaccination status will quickly arise. These surpluses are larger for longer epidemics and can become as large as 180-340 thousand piglets (45-75% of weekly domestic production) for moderate and long epidemics, respectively. Implementation of channelling strategies that allow earlier transportation within the MRZ can reduce surpluses by about 50% to 100-150 thousand piglets maximum. Strategies that also allow transportation outside the MRZ can reduce surpluses even further to below 100 thousand piglets. It was concluded that channelling of live piglets during AD outbreaks results in a drastic reduction of problems with accommodating ready-for-transport piglets. Moreover, it reduces shortages during movement restrictions and peak supply immediately after removing the restrictions. Channelling could therefore be an important instrument to reduce the economic and animal welfare impacts of containment measures.

Prospects for cost reductions from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to livestock trade.

Compared with the domestic trade in livestock, intra-communal trade across the European Union (EU) is subject to costly, additional veterinary measures. Short-distance transportation just across a border requires more measures than long-distance domestic transportation, while the need for such additional cross-border measures can be questioned. This study examined the prospects for cost reductions from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to trade within the cross-border region of the Netherlands (NL) and Germany (GER); that is, North Rhine Westphalia and Lower Saxony. The study constructed a deterministic spread-sheet cost model to calculate the costs of both routine veterinary measures (standard measures that apply to both domestic and cross-border transport) and additional cross-border measures (extra measures that only apply to cross-border transport) as applied in 2010. This model determined costs by stakeholder, region and livestock sector, and studied the prospects for cost reduction by calculating the costs after the relaxation of additional cross-border measures. The selection criteria for relaxing these measures were (1) a low expected added value on preventing contagious livestock diseases, (2) no expected additional veterinary risks in case of relaxation of measures and (3) reasonable cost-saving possibilities. The total cost of routine veterinary measures and additional cross-border measures for the cross-border region was €22.1 million, 58% (€12.7 million) of which came from additional cross-border measures. Two-thirds of this €12.7 million resulted from the trade in slaughter animals. The main cost items were veterinary checks on animals (twice in the case of slaughter animals), export certification and control of export documentation. Four additional cross-border measures met the selection criteria for relaxation. The relaxation of these measures could save €8.2 million (€5.0 million for NL and €3.2 million for GER) annually. Farmers would experience the greatest savings (99%), and most savings resulted from relaxing additional cross-border measures related to poultry (48%), mainly slaughter broilers (GER), and pigs (48%), mainly slaughter pigs (NL). In particular, the trade in slaughter animals (dead-end hosts) is subject to measures, such as veterinary checks on both sides of the border that might not contribute to preventing contagious livestock diseases. Therefore, this study concludes that there are several possibilities for reducing the costs of additional cross-border measures in both countries.

Lungworm outbreaks in adult dairy cows: estimating economic losses and lessons to be learned.

Two lungworm outbreaks in dairy herds were investigated in order to estimate the resulting economic costs. On the two farms, with 110 and 95 cows, total costs were estimated at €159 and €167 per cow, respectively. Overall, milk production reduced by 15 to 20 per cent during the outbreaks. Five cows died on one farm, while on the other farm seven cows died as a result of the lungworm outbreak. On one farm, 51.7 per cent of the total costs was due to reduced milk production and 33.1 per cent was due to disposal of dead animals. On the other farm, it was 36.3 and 50.9 per cent, respectively. The remaining 13 to 15 per cent of the total costs were due to extra inseminations, laboratory diagnosis and treatments. The history and development of the outbreaks are described. One lesson from these outbreaks is that recognising that potentially lungworm-naïve animals are to be introduced into the adult herd allows for timely measures (for example, vaccination) to prevent a lungworm outbreak.

A PathWayDiagram for introduction and prevention of Avian Influenza: Application to the Dutch poultry sector.

The introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) viruses is a continuing threat to the poultry sector. In times of increased risk of introduction (e.g. because of HPAI outbreaks in neighbouring countries or trade partners), decision-makers face the question whether they should intensify current preventive measures or establish new ones. To support this, a qualitative decision tool in the form of a PathWayDiagram (PWD) is presented. The PWD includes theoretically possible pathways for introduction of HPAI in the domestic commercial poultry population together with corresponding preventive measures. Hence, the PWD is a systematic checklist focused on (1) possibilities of (increased risk of) introduction and (2) possible preventive measures. It can be used in a high-alert situation, when decision-makers have to act in a relatively short time to decide on and implement a coherent set of preventive measures covering the high-risk pathways involved.

Financial consequences of the Dutch bluetongue serotype 8 epidemics of 2006 and 2007.

This study calculates the financial consequences of the bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV8) epidemics of 2006 and 2007 in the Netherlands. We constructed a deterministic economic model that is compatible with the Dutch livestock production systems for cattle, sheep and goats. Two hundred cattle farms and 270 sheep farms were infected with BTV8 in the epidemic of 2006, whereas 30,417 cattle farms, 45,022 sheep farms and 35,278 goat farms were estimated to be infected in the epidemic of 2007. The net costs (costs minus benefits) of the BTV8 epidemic of 2006 (BT2006) was estimated at 32.4 million Euros. The net costs of the BTV8 epidemic of 2007 (BT2007) was valued at 164-175 million Euros, depending on the mortality and morbidity rates for cattle used. The losses account for 2%, 10% and 11% of the gross value of the primary production within Dutch pasture-based livestock farming that equals 1.6 billion Euros. Control measures accounted for 91% of the net costs of the BT2006, while diagnostic costs represented 7%. By contrast, for the BT2007 92% of the net costs were in the form of production losses and veterinary treatment fees, while only 6% were related to control measures. Furthermore, the control costs dropped from 29,630 in BT2006 to 10,990 in BT2007 mainly due to the costly indoor housing that was not obligatory during the BT2007 epidemic. The cattle sector suffered 88% and 85% of the net costs for the BT2006 and BT2007, respectively; the highest of all sectors.